AB=CD on EUR/USD

Hi There! See the Chart below.

I not saying you buy or sell, or I predict the future move (see yellow draw). All can be possible. Anyway I use my imagination for that (Lol!). I just want illustrate a possible AB=CD Pattern. I not saying Entry long and sell at point D... or Sell exactly at point D. I just say that looks like a possible AB=CD pattern. Of course, many factors can be negate the pattern. The important aspect: Ever evaluate your trades. Simple way to follow (on this specific idea): Study the price action at point D. First, if this one forms(PRZ)... Wait for confirmation and take a decision; that decision need to contemplate risk to take and money management. Many Novice Traders take they decisions under opinion of 3rd parties. Please, Not do that! Make your own analysis and Trade your Plan. Have a good trading.. P. D. Ignore the yellow draw.

Strategy Aud/Usd

¡Bienvenidos! I expect AB=CD bearish pattern on Aud/Usd on Daily chart. 127.2% Fibonacci number looks interesting to me. Many use this one to determine the possible target; in this particular case I watch this for Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). In the other hand, many Traders expect entry long around 0.9400 because they want enter on a retracement (the old Resitance now is Support). I agree, but I not trade this way. I trust in the harmonic numbers and not change my strategy or method. Many change they strategy and method every day. Whatever your strategy or method you need be consistent with them. Not trade RSI today and tomorrow Stochastics or momentum. Less is better for me, and the most important is the price action. If you use many indicators you just confuse yourself. Get you angry and not understand what fails or what works well. All indicators look pretty good at the left of the chart. But at the right side many false signals appearing most frequently. Of course backtesting show you about the percentage of winning (and loss), but not work for trade property; Backtesting is just a small part of learning in my opinion, and works for study and valuate a new strategy. A year ago I tested several times stochastics Oscillator and the results was very good. Awesome results, but today Stochastics not work for me. I just waste my time in illusion. But I learned important lesson anyway. Have a good Trading Amigos.

Smells like a Gartley Pattern

Hi! I identify a Gartley Pattern on GBP/USD So, I expect buy if the point D forms. If not forms I pass the trade. In the chart below We can see fibonacci numbers works property. First Leg X to A have a 61.8% retracement and forms point B. A point to B point presents another 61.8% retracement and forms point C... All of this just means one thing: Smells like a Bullish Gartley. But this one can be negated for many factors. Tomorrow is Friday (America Time), and the point D can be forms. But, one of my rules says: Not open positions on Friday.
Gartley be negated if the point D not forms... How can know this? First, study the zone of D point. If the price forms a gap, or not stop near our Potencial Reversal Zone (PRZ). Pass the trade. Only take trades if you afford the consequences. Weekend can offer us many suprises.

You can see a yellow squares draw on stochastics...
Stochastics ever follow the Price action. Many novices Traders loss because they think: Price follows stochastics. Have a happy weekend everyone!

Is a Bad Idea? Usd/Cad

Hi there! I read expectations about Usd/Cad this morning and many people have the same idea apparently: The Usd/Cad is bearish, so... Sell! The criteria on fundamental analysis: building permits fell 3.3 % against 4.2% the drop was expected, and we see a PMI strong improvement. But, I never trade the news. I only follow technical analysis. For that reason I buy the pair USD/CAD (and not sell like others). Of course I can be wrong, and the possibility exists. Whenever I enter a trade I have two possible exits: Taking a profits or taking a loss. This is trading and maybe you are an excellent on fundamental analysis, very smart one. But you face too, the 2 exits when you enter a trade.

So, I've hearding and reading many traders says... Sell, sell USD/CAD. You can listen a guru saying sell, sell. But you are a serious trader, and not need opinions from 3rd parties saying what you need do. Your work as a trader is to make your own analysis and trade your method. If your method or system says you sell. Sell! Not trade under the analysis of others.

I find a good level to entry on Usd/cad... So, I buy the pair, calculating my risk as always and take the trade. You can see in the chart below.

My criteria to enter long: the 88.6% Retracement(the last potential reversal zone). The left congestion area supports my idea. Of ourse, I can be wrong. And if the price broke down I can sell looking for AB=CD pattern and is ok. I afford taking a small loss. For many that's mean "revenge". But no for me; Revenge is when you not planning nothing and take irrational trades wanting cover the initial loss.

I no trade stochastics but I show you Bearish signals inside the yellow circles. Another reason why many traders think the pair goes down. My opinion is: Stochastics provide us many false signals. I don't know if stochastics works today, but in the past not work well for me. Maybe I am stupid using this indictor.

So, I move my stop to break even as you see in the chart above, because the pair not move much the last 2 hours. I move to eat something or watch a movie. You not need sit in front of the screen all day long. Go out and playing with your dog, do excercise, go to buy beer( mmm... forget, not do that). Practice a sport... You need a fresh mind to watch the markets. Not stressed you.

Is a bad idea take a Break even trade?

Our first goal in trading is "Survive to trade the next day" So, I feel good with this.

First trade of the week

Hi there everyone, I take this trade yesterday. Maybe more of you not trade yesterday because this last monday was a holyday bank. Is very difficult trade short term days like this, so, I highly recommend stay away from the markets; go to the cinema or if you like painting, do that, or compose a great song about the great Leonardo de Pisa and play a great RPG Videogame. I taste stories about fantasy, witches, legends, etc. But... Not trade.
Anyway, I take this trade, because my strategy show me a opportunity to trade. And... Discipline means just one thing. Enter a position when your strategy show the property setups or give you a clear signal; Pull the trigger. If you not identify opportunity, doesn't matter what day is. No trade if you not identify a Pattern or whatever you trade. That simple not works. And remember: Nobody can be known the future.

The harmonic patterns works on any time frame, but I not trade them on 15 minutes or 5 minutes. You can see the image above of one of my monitors 3 Charts: Daily, 4 hrs and 1 hour. I enter my buy position around 1.0350 Usd/Cad. The reason was: 78% retracement on 4 hr chart and 161.8% extension on 1 hr chart. Harmonic number of course.

You can see my exit in the chart above. sometimes my target not was hit, but I ever follow my position with responsability. So, I move my stop loss 30 pips behind the current price. If the price goes against me, my trade can be closed with profit, I not hesitate for that. I ever want to reduce the risk of my trades.
  Look and see my target at 61.8% retracement, and look the Left chart: AB=CD pattern also. Have a great week!

Eur/usd Butterfly?

Hi everybody! Last night we draw this pattern, and today we think we have found a possible Butterfly pattern in this chart. Eur/usd 1h.

At this time we need to wait for the formation of point D. And our idea about gartley pattern on daily chart still valid. Of course, if point D not forms, the pattern be negate, and that is ok for me. The C-D leg can extend to 1.618 harmonic number and still valid. So, wait for the formation of point D. Happy Trading!