December 9, 2010

Patience rewards

As many says: Patience is a virtue. Inside the world of trading means; Patience is equal to reward.
 You can see the chart above... The AB=CD pattern looks really good. Maybe you enter your buy position and forget that trade the entire day... At this time you have a profit.
I hope this be helpful in your trading... Is just another example about how can improve your trading using Harmonics. AB=CD just means: Buy Low and Sell High. If you want make money, just do that: Buy low and Sell High... and viceversa.
Happy trading!

November 23, 2010

Buying again Gbp/usd

Hi Everyone! Ive wait to move my stop when I have 20 pips (profit) to Break Even. It is my first step to ride on risk free trade. I don't know if this time I can earn some pips. Maybe I lose, but I not have problem with that. because I find a pattern, and... trade this. My plan is easy to follow and very simple. I just search for a harmonic pattern and identify my PRZ. After evaluate that. I make a plan to enter, and... when the time arrive just pull the trigger. See in the chart Below my entry. Have a great Day!
At this time I move my stop. Because I go out... 15 pips at this time.

November 22, 2010

Gbp/Usd Buy Gartley

Hi everyone! Let's start the week. I find a pattern and I take it. Just now I move my stop to break even... If all goes bad, my trade was close. See my view in the chart below. Have a great week everybody!

November 19, 2010

Psycho

Hi everyone! Today I show you a Eur/Usd chart. You can see my PRZ inside the yellow circle, the 2.24 (red circle) was hit... and provide us a great signal to enter. See the chart below.
As you see I draw AB=CD pattern (pink lines) and maybe many enter; they sell and taking a position using that criteria and is ok. Maybe faced a small trades or Break even trades, but the pattern still valid. Have you see a divergence on MACD (Yellow line)? Patience ever rewards.
The 2.24 (2.259 in the cart above) are part of seconday harmonic numbers. Inside this case was work pretty well as you see in the chart above. Take a look at those levels and test. Train your mind.


The psychological aspect in trading is primordial and many other things in our daily lives required. Not just skills make us succeed, because our thoughts sometimes play tricky games inside our minds. Maybe you have heard some of these words: “Never trade what you think… Just trade what you see” Many scammers use this phrase saying: Robots no have emotions (the mean reason because many traders lose money in the markets) of course you not need to eliminate your emotions at all, because is impossible, you just need control them.  A robot not works and never works because the markets are very dynamic… who’s tried to send you a genius Robot, just is trying sell you a Dream: make a ton of pips every week, make you rich in a few months… But that is other story. You need be focused in your goals to be successful. Never do that stupid thing from the Movie “The Secret” In my opinion you not need to think beauty and positive things all the day with your arms crossed. That is ridiculous; what the matter with you? Are you insane? Maybe you have that idea inside your mind: I want to be rich… very powerful tough about. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and the entire week. Positive mind 24hr daily focused in be rich. How you reach that goal? You need only one trade 500:1 and a lucky monkey who’s click your buy or sell button: You expect make 1000 pips because you have positive toughs about be rich? Have sense? Of course is possible someone say… But think about the probability… safer and more cheaply is buy a lottery ticket.
 Ok, more of that in the next post. Have a great weekend everyone.

November 8, 2010

GBP/USD Sell Gartley

I identify a possible Gartley on Gbp/Usd Their structure show us 0.786 setup. So, we need to take under consideration basic aspects before entry a position(sell position). Maybe take a look on 1hr time frame chart, or wait for confirmation. You need to study the probable PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). And ever evaluate your money management. The big difference between novice traders and advanced ones is "Experience".
Take care and keep learning. Happy trading.

October 7, 2010

Alternate 1.27 or 1.618 AB=CD

Hi Everybody! As you know I short on Aud/Usd and Eur/Usd. Following the AB=CD pattern. I am not a perfect trader (simple human) and take a losing trade on Eur/Usd. My first entry was at 1.3980 and my stop was hit at 1.4010 only risking 30 pips. After that I re-enter at 1.3983 because the pattern still looks good for me. Impatience beat me little, but as you see our trade is working now.
The Aud/Usd gives us 3 break even trades and one losing trade, but is working pretty well now.
I have a short explanation for you: Sometimes AB=CD pattern Not have a ideal structure and present variations but still valid. In this specific trade we watch 1.27 AB=CD pattern.
Alternate 1.27 or 1.618 AB=CD
I hope this be helpful for ya.
Have a Good Week!

September 29, 2010

AB=CD on EUR/USD

Hi There! See the Chart below.

I not saying you buy or sell, or I predict the future move (see yellow draw). All can be possible. Anyway I use my imagination for that (Lol!). I just want illustrate a possible AB=CD Pattern. I not saying Entry long and sell at point D... or Sell exactly at point D. I just say that looks like a possible AB=CD pattern. Of course, many factors can be negate the pattern. The important aspect: Ever evaluate your trades. Simple way to follow (on this specific idea): Study the price action at point D. First, if this one forms(PRZ)... Wait for confirmation and take a decision; that decision need to contemplate risk to take and money management. Many Novice Traders take they decisions under opinion of 3rd parties. Please, Not do that! Make your own analysis and Trade your Plan. Have a good trading.. P. D. Ignore the yellow draw.

September 22, 2010

Strategy Aud/Usd

¡Bienvenidos! I expect AB=CD bearish pattern on Aud/Usd on Daily chart. 127.2% Fibonacci number looks interesting to me. Many use this one to determine the possible target; in this particular case I watch this for Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). In the other hand, many Traders expect entry long around 0.9400 because they want enter on a retracement (the old Resitance now is Support). I agree, but I not trade this way. I trust in the harmonic numbers and not change my strategy or method. Many change they strategy and method every day. Whatever your strategy or method you need be consistent with them. Not trade RSI today and tomorrow Stochastics or momentum. Less is better for me, and the most important is the price action. If you use many indicators you just confuse yourself. Get you angry and not understand what fails or what works well. All indicators look pretty good at the left of the chart. But at the right side many false signals appearing most frequently. Of course backtesting show you about the percentage of winning (and loss), but not work for trade property; Backtesting is just a small part of learning in my opinion, and works for study and valuate a new strategy. A year ago I tested several times stochastics Oscillator and the results was very good. Awesome results, but today Stochastics not work for me. I just waste my time in illusion. But I learned important lesson anyway. Have a good Trading Amigos.

September 10, 2010

Smells like a Gartley Pattern

Hi! I identify a Gartley Pattern on GBP/USD So, I expect buy if the point D forms. If not forms I pass the trade. In the chart below We can see fibonacci numbers works property. First Leg X to A have a 61.8% retracement and forms point B. A point to B point presents another 61.8% retracement and forms point C... All of this just means one thing: Smells like a Bullish Gartley. But this one can be negated for many factors. Tomorrow is Friday (America Time), and the point D can be forms. But, one of my rules says: Not open positions on Friday.
Gartley be negated if the point D not forms... How can know this? First, study the zone of D point. If the price forms a gap, or not stop near our Potencial Reversal Zone (PRZ). Pass the trade. Only take trades if you afford the consequences. Weekend can offer us many suprises.

You can see a yellow squares draw on stochastics...
Stochastics ever follow the Price action. Many novices Traders loss because they think: Price follows stochastics. Have a happy weekend everyone!

September 8, 2010

Is a Bad Idea? Usd/Cad

Hi there! I read expectations about Usd/Cad this morning and many people have the same idea apparently: The Usd/Cad is bearish, so... Sell! The criteria on fundamental analysis: building permits fell 3.3 % against 4.2% the drop was expected, and we see a PMI strong improvement. But, I never trade the news. I only follow technical analysis. For that reason I buy the pair USD/CAD (and not sell like others). Of course I can be wrong, and the possibility exists. Whenever I enter a trade I have two possible exits: Taking a profits or taking a loss. This is trading and maybe you are an excellent on fundamental analysis, very smart one. But you face too, the 2 exits when you enter a trade.

So, I've hearding and reading many traders says... Sell, sell USD/CAD. You can listen a guru saying sell, sell. But you are a serious trader, and not need opinions from 3rd parties saying what you need do. Your work as a trader is to make your own analysis and trade your method. If your method or system says you sell. Sell! Not trade under the analysis of others.

I find a good level to entry on Usd/cad... So, I buy the pair, calculating my risk as always and take the trade. You can see in the chart below.

My criteria to enter long: the 88.6% Retracement(the last potential reversal zone). The left congestion area supports my idea. Of ourse, I can be wrong. And if the price broke down I can sell looking for AB=CD pattern and is ok. I afford taking a small loss. For many that's mean "revenge". But no for me; Revenge is when you not planning nothing and take irrational trades wanting cover the initial loss.

I no trade stochastics but I show you Bearish signals inside the yellow circles. Another reason why many traders think the pair goes down. My opinion is: Stochastics provide us many false signals. I don't know if stochastics works today, but in the past not work well for me. Maybe I am stupid using this indictor.


So, I move my stop to break even as you see in the chart above, because the pair not move much the last 2 hours. I move to eat something or watch a movie. You not need sit in front of the screen all day long. Go out and playing with your dog, do excercise, go to buy beer( mmm... forget, not do that). Practice a sport... You need a fresh mind to watch the markets. Not stressed you.

Is a bad idea take a Break even trade?

Our first goal in trading is "Survive to trade the next day" So, I feel good with this.

September 7, 2010

First trade of the week

Hi there everyone, I take this trade yesterday. Maybe more of you not trade yesterday because this last monday was a holyday bank. Is very difficult trade short term days like this, so, I highly recommend stay away from the markets; go to the cinema or if you like painting, do that, or compose a great song about the great Leonardo de Pisa and play a great RPG Videogame. I taste stories about fantasy, witches, legends, etc. But... Not trade.
Anyway, I take this trade, because my strategy show me a opportunity to trade. And... Discipline means just one thing. Enter a position when your strategy show the property setups or give you a clear signal; Pull the trigger. If you not identify opportunity, doesn't matter what day is. No trade if you not identify a Pattern or whatever you trade. That simple not works. And remember: Nobody can be known the future.

The harmonic patterns works on any time frame, but I not trade them on 15 minutes or 5 minutes. You can see the image above of one of my monitors 3 Charts: Daily, 4 hrs and 1 hour. I enter my buy position around 1.0350 Usd/Cad. The reason was: 78% retracement on 4 hr chart and 161.8% extension on 1 hr chart. Harmonic number of course.

You can see my exit in the chart above. sometimes my target not was hit, but I ever follow my position with responsability. So, I move my stop loss 30 pips behind the current price. If the price goes against me, my trade can be closed with profit, I not hesitate for that. I ever want to reduce the risk of my trades.
  Look and see my target at 61.8% retracement, and look the Left chart: AB=CD pattern also. Have a great week!

September 1, 2010

Eur/usd Butterfly?

Hi everybody! Last night we draw this pattern, and today we think we have found a possible Butterfly pattern in this chart. Eur/usd 1h.
At this time we need to wait for the formation of point D. And our idea about gartley pattern on daily chart still valid. Of course, if point D not forms, the pattern be negate, and that is ok for me. The C-D leg can extend to 1.618 harmonic number and still valid. So, wait for the formation of point D. Happy Trading!

August 30, 2010

EUR/USD Gartley

I show you my idea about Eur/usd Gartley on a Daily Chart. This can be possible of course, but this can be negating too.
First I identify the first leg X to A and expect 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement to form point B as you see in the Chart above. The first rule: Point B not exceeded the point X. If happen, our pattern be negate. We expect at this time, the formation of point C. This can be 61.8% of point A to point B or harmonic. Second Rule: C nor exceed A. So, we expect the formation of point D to validate this pattern. If the patter structure form is good, I take a buy position at D point. Harmonic Patterns work 70% of the time, so. I not want predict the future. That is simple, is No possible. I only show my idea about that formation. That not mean that happen or I predict the future. Happy Trading!

August 27, 2010

USD/CAD Stop

Finally our stop was hit and... I not have problem for that, because I planning that and things like that can be happened many times. Anyway, I wan to justify my criteria about taken this trade, so. I draw Fibonacci retracement in this Chart.
The most important aspect to observe is the price action at 61.8% level. The price action reacts at this level. This is the first point to watch for AB=CD Pattern. 61.8% can be a good entry also, you can see congestion area at the left of the chart around 6th... is a great reference to expect the price stop at that level.
In this Chart you can see Fibonacci level are really simple 1.618 is a harmonic number (that´s why I enter short). so, try to study these numbers. Our goal is identify these numbers and look for probable opportunities to enter a position. These numbers provide us a great probability and low risk.

Minutes after, our stop order was hit. We face a new oportunity to enter short.
This trade is a faster one, but I not take it. the criteria is simple. Look the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the great Supply zone. The plan is simple: enter into the yellow zone and put your stop above the last higher high.


Have a great weekend.

August 26, 2010

USD/CAD Sell

Hi there! My name is Octavio Dolores, a retail FX trader. I watched many methods and strategies in different forums about, how to do trading property, and for that I decided begin this Blog. I hope you can find this helpful or... this impact positive on your trading.
In this Chart I show you USD/CAD pair, the entry (short) was taken yesterday; today I wait for my exit. The criteria to enter short (sell) is very simple. I identify AB=CD pattern, Harmony pattern. Some times this pattern present variations on their estructure, but I talk about in the future. For the moment is time to training our eyes to identify this pattern. Remember, the learning process never ends.
In a implicit way, here you can see rules I think. The most basic and important is this one: Some ever you can move your stop in your favor, never... but never against you. In the markets all can be happened, so, you need to reduce the risk ever.